In May 2026, China's air conditioning exports ushered in a crucial turning point, exhibiting a robust growth trend of "cold domestically and hot internationally". According to the monitoring data from All View Cloud's PSI, air conditioning export production scheduling saw a significant year-on-year increase of 11.2% in May, reversing the downturn of a 12.6% year-on-year decline in April. Conversely, domestic sales production scheduling decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, forming a stark "scissors gap" between domestic and international sales. Overseas markets have become the core engine driving industry growth.

Emerging market demand is surging, with Southeast Asia and the Middle East becoming the main growth drivers

The Southeast Asian market continues to lead the way, becoming a "ballast" for air conditioning exports. In March 2026, China's air conditioning export value to Southeast Asia increased by 14% year-on-year, making it the only region in the world to experience positive growth. As we entered the high-temperature peak season in May and June, the peak season in Southeast Asia arrived earlier than expected, with orders overflowing in countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. Mainstream enterprises continued to increase their export production schedules.

The Middle East market has experienced a robust recovery, highlighting its premium pricing ability. Despite regional fluctuations at the beginning of the year, the rigid demand for air conditioning in high temperatures remains irreplaceable. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have seen a surge in demand for high-temperature and high-energy efficiency air conditioning, with orders increasing by over 20% year-on-year. Data shows that Chinese air conditioning has a significant premium in the Middle East market. In 2025, exports to the eight Gulf countries amounted to RMB 23.62 billion, with an average annual compound growth rate exceeding 11%. Local consumers are willing to pay higher prices for high-quality Chinese air conditioning.

In addition, markets such as India and South America are making concerted efforts. India has been experiencing persistent extreme heat, with insufficient local production capacity and power shortages, making it unable to meet the surging demand for cooling. Leveraging its efficient production capacity and stable supply chain, China's air conditioning industry has benefited from export dividends to India, with annual exports of complete machines and components reaching millions of units. At the 139th Canton Fair, companies such as Skyworth Air Conditioning showcased large-capacity inverter models, leveraging their advantages of "fast cooling and stable energy efficiency" to establish deep connections with customers from South America and Europe, resulting in a fruitful signing of intentional orders.

Product upgrades + capacity layout, strengthening export competitiveness

Technological upgrading drives high-end products to go global, with AI and green energy efficiency becoming selling points. In 2026, leading enterprises such as Gree and Midea accelerated their overseas expansion into AI smart air conditioning, highlighting "AI dynamic energy saving and healthy airflow". In the Southeast Asian market, the premium reached 15%-20%. At the same time, R32 environmentally friendly refrigerant air conditioning accounted for over 80%, meeting the environmental protection requirements of markets such as the European Union and Australia, helping enterprises break through green trade barriers.

Local production circumvents barriers, and global production capacity achieves synergistic efficiency. Facing changes in European and American tariffs and regional trade policies, domestic enterprises are accelerating the establishment of overseas factories: Midea is expanding its bases in Vietnam and Thailand, with overseas production capacity accounting for 40% by 2026; Gree has established a factory in Malaysia, focusing on the European and American markets; TCL has put its Indonesian base into operation, deeply cultivating the ASEAN market and effectively reducing logistics costs and tariff risks.

Industry confidence is boosted, and the sustainability of export growth is clear

Looking ahead, the momentum for air conditioning export growth remains strong. The export production schedule for June is expected to increase by 5.8% year-on-year, continuing the recovery trend. Under the influence of the global El Niño climate, high temperatures in summer and autumn may persist, further stimulating overseas demand for refrigeration. At the same time, Chinese air conditioning enterprises continue to demonstrate their comprehensive advantages in technology, production capacity, and supply chain. Coupled with the accelerated expansion of their own brands overseas, their core market shares in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions are expected to further increase.

The strong rebound in exports this time is not only a reflection of the short-term recovery of demand, but also a concentrated release of the strategic achievements of China's air conditioning industry in "technical upgrading + global layout + brand expansion overseas". Against the backdrop of pressure in the domestic market, overseas markets have become the core growth driver for the industry, pushing China's air conditioning industry to continue leading in global competition.